December 17th, 2003

Subtraction By Subtraction

So, the New York Mets and Seattle Mariners have exchanged headaches, swapping outfielder Roger Cedeno for third baseman Jeff Cirillo and $5 million -- the cash making the trade a wash in terms of salary. Other reports are saying that the Mariners are balking at making the deal even in terms of salary.

Some might say that Cirillo's anemic production in Seattle is simply a function of playing at hitter-unfriendly Safeco Field. Riddle me this, fellow Mets fans: can you name one player the Mets have acquired over their entire history that has experienced a marked increase in offensive production after arriving in New York, and having to play 81 games at notoriously pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium? Even the vaunted Mike Piazza has seen his production slide since he first donned a Mets uniform, so what makes us think Cirillo (who should thank the Milwaukee Brewers for the rest of his days for arranging his career-altering trip to Colorado for two seasons) will make like the second coming of Hubie Brooks or Lenny Randle?

Here's my prediction: Cedeno will suddenly be productive again in Seattle, especially as a platoon player -- a role he absolutely excelled at during the 1999 season. Cedeno is just the sort of player that keeps "late-inning defensive replacements," earning cash in the majors. Meanwhile, Cirillo will settle in as a late inning pinch hitter and defensive replacement (as if Ty Wiggington is going to love that after giving up his natural position to play third). Which means he'll hardly be used at all. Instead of having a brooding fourth outfielder who never plays, you'll have a brooding veteran third baseman who never gets to play -- not exactly an ideal solution.

The result: Cirillo's outright release sometime between June 1, 2004 and the end of his bloated contract.

Here's a better idea -- why not just release Cedeno outright if you've determined you can't use him as a fourth outfielder? Even better, why not give him the full Epstein -- place him on waivers, and when nobody picks him up, grant his outright release? Trading a lemon for a lemon with the same salary isn't any sort of solution.

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