Another of my readers, a Maple Leafs fan named Matt ,apparently thinks I have a Nextel direct connect arrangement with Washington Caps GM George McPhee:
Everyone knows my Leafs want Gonchar. And everyone knows your Caps want Antropov/Stajan/Colaiacovo. Personally, I don't want any of those guys to move. And reports of Toronto needing to ship out two of those three (And a pick!) for Gonchar is insane. Right now, those 3 and Alexander Steen are the only 'sure-fire' NHLers that Toronto has, and even that's never certain.So what I'm wondering - If you were McPhee, would you consider Tomas Kaberle and a different prospect? Or would it still take one of the three kids? If Gonchar does get here, Kaberle would lose tons of playing time, and he's essentially the same player as Sergei, just not as strong offensively.
Unfortunatley for me, I fear that the thinning crop of available D-men will force Toronto to make a deal that they lose out on big time. Please note I don't consider those three untouchable, but Gonchar (and yes, he's the best offensive d-man out there) is not good enough for the Leafs' future.
After conferring with my sources, I passed this message back, with the hopes it reaches Leafs GM John Ferguson.
Dude -- what are you willing to do to win the Stanley Cup?
You refer to the future, but when was the last time there was a Cup parade down Younge?
To play, you gotta pay. And if you want to obtain the best puck moving defenseman in all of hockey (at this moment anyway), you're going to have to give up some value in return.
This is not a Peter Bondra situation, where essentially Ottawa obtained a 2-month+playoffs rental. Gonchar has got plenty of good years ahead of him. Better yet, he's been to the Finals before (1998), and knows what playoff pressure is like.
You want this guy. If you want the Cup, you need this guy. Pay up.
Here's a reference point. Back in 1996, Colorado GM Pierre Lacroix needed a puck moving defenseman to complement his offense. He had a surplus of forwards, so early in the season when the pressure was off, he swapped a young and vital Owen Nolan for San Jose's Sandis Ozolinsh.
It was a deal that traded quality for quality. Toronto is going to have to make a hockey deal, and come up with a deadline pressure markup if they want to grab Gonchar.
In a way, I kind of envy McPhee these days. He's clearly weathered the worst of the storm with Caps owner Ted Leonsis, who would have gotten rid of him by now if he was going to replace him. Instead, he's getting a blank slate, and a mandate to rebuild the Capitals from the ground up. At the same time, he gets to use some real value (and as individuals moving to new locales, Gonchar, Olie Kolzig, Robert Lang and Brendan Witt all have significant value) to re-stock his minor league system.
After that, he's probably looking at 2-3 seasons out of the playoffs and at the bottom of the league -- and near the top of the draft order when players like Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby are finally ready for prime time.
POSTSCRIPT: Joe Tasca thinks Gonchar isn't worth the price, and Toronto will ultimately balk at acquiring him.
To be fair to Ottawa, the Senators’ management doesn’t see Peter Bondra as a playoff rental. I’ve seen numerous articles mention that Ottawa fully intends to exercise Bondra’s contract option for next season.
The reported Bruins offer of Samsonov and a first round pick sounds a whole lot better than anything Toronto is going to offer. If Samsonov can ever stay healthy for a season and play with a center that can skate with him (Lang) he cold turn into a real superstar.
I think the reason Leonsis hasn’t (and won’t) fire McPhee is because Ted realizes much of the Caps’ current collapse is directly tied to the one move Ted himself forced upon McPhee–the Jagr trade. Unlike, say, Dan Snyder, Leonsis has demonstrated enough integrity to assume responsibility for his own mistakes and not pass the buck. Heck, Ted even beats up the fans himself rather than send a minion!
You can fault McPhee, of course, for firing Ron Wilson and bringing in Bruce Cassidy. But Wilson’s firing seemed was more about the incompatibility of Wilson’s system with Jagr than it was about any differences between coach and GM.
Couple of things. First, I don’t think Eric has a Nextel direct connect line with McPhee. If anything, it’s Verizon.
Second, there’s a fairly good chance Gonchar could end up being a playoff rental after all. With him being an RFA after the season, and the CBA mess, Toronto (most likely) would be unable to afford Sergei. Their post-’armageddon’ forward core of Sundin, Mogilny, and Nolan already commands some hefty cash. Not to mention McCabe and a number one goaltender.
And finally, Kaberle is not a doofus with a stick. The guy can play hockey. I’m not suggesting Washington give Gonchar away, just that they want too much for a possible rental.
The Leafs can ‘afford’ to pay Gonchar post-lockout. According to Forbes, they were the most profitable team in the NHL last year, even after correcting for the US exchange.
While Eric has a point–1967 was a looong time ago–I would rather hang on to Colaiacovo, Antropov, and Stajan, and wait a few more years. It’s clear that developing homegrown talent into players or tradebait (see Quebec Nordiques, Detroit Red Wings, Vancouver Canucks) is one route to a successful team.
Mortgaging the Leafs’ future a la Cliff Fletcher in the 1990s might win you a Cup, but it could just as easily knock you out of the playoffs on a blown call *cough*LA Kings*cough*. I have no desire for a parade down Yonge this year, at the expense of the team’s future–I would rather the Leafs were contenders for the next 10 years.
It’s not a money problem with Toronto. They have the funds. But a possible salary cap/luxury tax will mean one team can’t have too many big contracts, like Gonchar will want.