After finishing my post on Christian Drejer, the Florida sophomore who bolted from Gainesville to return to Europe and a fat contract with FC Barcelona, I found myself asking a few more questions -- ones I didn't have many ready answers to.
But as it turns out, I was able to get hold of somebody who does have some answers.
Dan Tobin represents professional basketball players, and runs his solo practice out of the Washington, DC area. Dan served as Vice President of Basketball for Professional Management Associates from 1997-2003. Over the course of his tenure with PMA, Dan signed Jason Williams, Cal Bowdler, Trenton Hassell, Will Solomon, Roger Mason and Tamar Slay.
For agents like Dan, the NBA Draft is the biggest day on the calendar, so I concentrated on questions concerning how players prepare for the draft, and made sure to mention what else might have gone into Drejer's decision to return to Europe. And I made sure to throw in a Kobe Bryant question too.
Enjoy -- and thanks again to Dan for participating. He's been very gracious, and has hinted he's willing to come back. There's some real insight here in terms of talent evaluation, and even a revelation about how teams make mistakes with draft picks that readers of Moneyball will find very familiar.
Off Wing Opinion (OWO): At this point who is going number one in the 2004 NBA Draft?
Dan Tobin (DT): It will depend on which underclassmen or high school players declare for the draft. I am always reluctant to discuss specific high school players and underclassmen until which point they have declared for the draft. However, rest assured the first pick in the draft will not be a senior in college.
OWO: What does a player have to do right now to move up in the draft?
DT: Spend as little time thinking about the draft and concentrating more on the next practice or the next game. A cardinal sin is adjusting your game mid-season to what you think the pro scouts want to see from you.
OWO: When is the critical time when NBA scouts make their final evaluations on prospects?
DT: Typically, the Chicago Pre-Draft camp is the first or second week of June and the draft is the fourth week. In the period between the conclusion of the camp and the draft itself, the prospects will travel to those teams which have indicated interest in them and workout with usually three other prospects. It is normally during this period that teams are making their final decisions on players.
OWO: How and why do teams make mistakes in the draft? What's the common thread?
DT: Sometimes a player will have a tremendous individual workout or a big first night at the Chicago camp and a team will ignore to some extent an otherwise mediocre college career. The common thread seems to be overemphasizing the post-season evaluation at the expense of the college career which provides more of a track record.
OWO: What's the most common mistake a prospect can make in the weeks running up to the draft?
DT: Not protecting his downside. A player who thinks he's solidly in the lottery may refuse to work out with teams that draft in the low 20's for example. And many teams will not draft players that do not work out with them. The idea is to build your base and then move up. But you don't want to get caught in a situation where the teams drafting just below the area you are projected to go in pass on you because you didn't work out with them. I have seen it happen.
OWO: Why does a player like Christian Drejer make the jump back to Europe?
DT: That's a very interesting question. I suppose in theory he was looking to be evaluated by the NBA in a different system other than the one he was playing in. He's not prospering at Florida so he figures that he can wipe the slate clean and move to Barcelona and start again because he doesn't have to enter the draft until he's 22 as a foreign player. What is problematic for him is that unlike other European prospects who benefit from the rush to draft Europeans is that Drejer has already been exposed here in the United States and therefore has lost some of the intrigue that he would have otherwise maintained had he not come at all.
I am not sure his move will have the desired effect.
