Off Wing Opinion

Greg Wyshynski takes his typically fractured look at the Eastern Conference. It's a lot like John Buccigross', except without the references to obscure alt-rock bands.

BTW -- Greg says the Islanders make the playoffs. Send help now.

In this episode of Off Wing Radio, Joe Tasca and I discuss the news around Dan Cloutier and Sean Burke, the salary cap problems of the New Jersey Devils and the prospects for the Atlanta Thrashers. The show comes in at 13:27.

Remember, all you have to do is subscribe to my XML feed (copy the address into your favorite podcast aggregator), and you'll get the file automatically.

Alexander Ovechkin was at RFK Stadium last night to throw out the first pitch before the game against the Phillies, and Dan Steinberg of the Post was there. Click here for the view from batting practice, and here for the results of the crash course in teaching a Russian sports superstar how to throw a baseball.

Steinberg is also asking Caps fans what they think of the team's chances this year. Click here for my thoughts from last week on what needs to happen for the team to make the playoffs.

From NHL PR comes this handy list of important dates for the upcoming season. Enjoy:

2006-07 CRITICAL DATES

September

27 NHL Game On Party (New York)

October

4 89th NHL Regular Season Begins (Also known as the Lamiarello Deadline)

November

11 Hockey Hall of Fame Game (Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs)

13 Hockey Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony (Toronto)

December

1 Signing Deadline for Group 2 Free Agents

19-27 Holiday roster freeze. For all players on an NHL roster as of midnight, local time, Dec. 19, a roster freeze shall apply through midnight, local time, Dec. 27, with respect to waivers, trades and any other player assignments. Players may be recalled to clubs during this period.

26-Jan.5 IIHF World U20 Championship (Mora & Leksand, Sweden)

January

13 CBC

Given that most of Off Wing's readers are certifiable fans of ice hockey and the NHL, I'm sure most of us have at one time or another attempted to share our passion for the game with a romantic interest. I did just that with a long-time girlfriend in the early 1990s, when I took her to see the Caps play the Chicago Blackhawks at the Capital Center in Landover. These weren't just any Blackhawks mind you, these were the Chris Chelios, Jeremey Roenick, Ed Belfour-Blackhawks: An entertaining Original Six squad that was a perennial Cup contender in that era.

Our seats were behind the goal the Blackhawks defended in the first and third period, only eight rows off the ice. After two periods, my date declared that she had seen enough, and that it was time to go home.

"You do realize we have another period to play," I asked in astonishment.

She said yes, that she understood, but that she was bored and just wanted to go home.

Needless to say, the relationship didn't last. But as frustrating as that night was for me, it was nothing like a story that was passed along to me last Friday night by a lawyer currently working on Capitol Hill.

It was a few years back while working in private practice that one of her colleagues -- a Caps season ticket holder -- asked her if she'd like to go to a game. She told me that though she never was much of a hockey fan, she was interested enough in the guy to agree. Unfortunately, things started to go wrong as soon as they got into the car to head to the game.

It was there in the lot that he thanked her for agreeing to go, but that before they left he'd have to get his jerseys out of the trunk of the car.

"By the way," he said, "which would you like to wear, home or away?"

Which is about the time Single Female Lawyer realized she was dealing with a Beltway version of David Puddy.

Needless to say, she was a bit taken aback, she told me. After all, she had carefully calibrated her evening ensemble to be casual, but neat. You know, looking good, but not overdressed for a hockey game.

Too bad they didn't have pink jerseys available back then.

At a loss for an answer, she guessed "home". Which was when he pulled a white Caps jersey out of the trunk that was so big it fell all the way past her knees once she put it on. You know, she was kicking it, "Waldorf-style".

At this point, I was having trouble not stifling my laughter. On the one hand, you feel bad for a decent person who's just trying to do the right thing, play along, and get out of the evening without any major emotional scars. On the other hand, we all know guys like this one. And while I haven't worn a Caps jersey to a game since Halloween 1997, we all know that guys like this one help make the atmosphere at the arena one that we enjoy.

I mean, how can I jump ugly with a guy who just wants to show a girl a good time?

Needless to say, there was no return engagement. Perhaps it's just as well.

And he's returned with tales of Uncle Kenny and his annual musically-related Eastern Conference preview.

If I seem a little scarce this week, it's because I'm on the beach in North Carolina taking a late Summer vacation. I should have some more stuff to say tonight.

From NHL.com:

On Monday, Oct. 2, Capitals majority owner Ted Leonsis, NHL rookie of the year Alex Ovechkin, Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK), Representative Tom Davis (R-VA), Representative Steny Hoyer (D-MD) along with other politicians, local broadcasters and athletes will team up with the Washington Capitals and the Capitals' Alumni Association for the third-annual Caps Care Classic. As the official golf tournament of the Washington Capitals, the Caps Care Classic raised nearly $500,000 for local charities during the first two years of its existence.

Nice cause. Cool stuff. Like the Steve Yzerman jersey that's available for only $260, a relative steal. The biggest gainer off an opening bid had to be the Olie Kolzig jersey, now sitting at $510. Alexander Ovechkin is currently fetching $410.

It's a good cause. Bid early and often.

This is pretty close to nuts: Tie Domi, recently retired from the NHL, is apparently dating Liberal MP Belinda Stronach, a Conservartive Party turncoat with ambitions that include taking a shot at the Liberal leadership sometime in the next few years.

Take a look at her, here.

Which of course means that Domi has a shot at being Canada's first, First Man. Which means that Domi would probably have to find something to do during those interminable G8 meetings.

Thanks to my friend John Palmer for the pointer.

Longtime reader Bill Linehan had a bone to pick with me regarding my post from Thursday concerning on-ice safety in the NHL. The following is excerpted from an email he sent me on Thursday evening:

How is it a "free market sports enthusiast" like you can't accept the fact that some people (i.e., NHL hockey players) might have different values than you or Michael Farber? (i.e., "I want to score a few more goals, and I'm willing to trade up from 0.001% chance of eye injury to 0.01% to do it.")

Whether or not I accept that certain NHL players have different values than I do when it comes to on-ice safety is immaterial. Please know that I'm not interested in compelling the adults in the NHL to do anything that they don't consent to themselves.

However, doesn't it make sense to differentiate between decisions that make a trade-off between safety and on-ice awareness, and those that are made simply for the sake of fashion? It's one thing to remove the ear flaps from your helmet in order to improve your hearing on the ice, or eschew a visor because of how it can limit visibility. Those decisions I can understand. But it's another thing entirely to shave padding out of the inside of a helmet or refuse to tighten a chinstrap just because it might look goofy.

And boy, does it look goofy. Don't believe me, just go to your local pro shop and strap on a helmet straight out of the box without a cage. Be sure to tighten that chin strap tight too. It might just be the quickest way to look like a five year old kid.

Safe to say, no matter where you fall on this question, I think it's an interesting one, which is why I linked to the Farber piece.

On a practical note, visor proponents keep claiming that there is no visibility issue anymore. Bunk! I've tried 3 brands of visor (+ multiple 'de-fogging' solutions/remedies) and with none of them could I avoid the fog & sweat problem. Different people have different 'thermodynamics', and just because visors work ok for some players doesn't mean it works for all. I know many other beer leaguers who've had the same results, and I can think of no reason why the bell curve would be different for pros.

That tracks with my experience too. My ITech full clear face shield fogged so reliably that I ditched it and went back to a wire cage. When I sold it to a local used sporting goods store, I was frankly shocked that they paid me anything for it.

Another question I want addressed: if protecting the players eyes is the real motivation behind visor advocates -- and not just a journalists' ego trying to put their stamp on the game -- then why aren't they pushing for mandatory full face cages instead of visors? Visors didn't do much for Dany Heatley or Saku Koviu when they had their eye injuries.

PS -- The true free market solution is for teams to offer contract incentives for players to adopt a visor (or cage). The team's lower insurace rates that result could be passed on to the players. Reward ... not punishment.

PPS -- It's not a workplace safety issue unless the NHL or NHLPA are conspiring to deny the players the right to choose to wear a visor. That is not the case.

Bill raises a number of interesting questions here, and so did Colby Cosh in the comments box of the original post:

Capsule summary for busy readers: "I, Michael Farber, have no data to support my safety concerns, which defy logic and are largely discounted by those who are actually entitled to an opinion. I prefer manufacturing imaginary controversies to the sportswriting that is, in theory, my job."

If Farber is right, it ought to be something that we can easily confirm. After all, if there is a statistically significant increase in safety in the use of visors, actuaries ought to be able to translate that into dollars and cents. I'll do some digging and see what I find out.

Thanks to Bill for the note and helping to continue the conversation.

In our last Off Wing podcast of the 2005-06 season, Joe Tasca interviewed Grady Whittenburg, the play-by-play voice of the Binghamtom Senators (MP3) about the goings on in the AHL. During that interview, he and Joe talked at length about how the Senators seemed to be abusing career minor leaguer Denis Hamel, a man who seemed to have accomplished everything he could have in the AHL with the exception of earning promotion to an NHL roster.

Well, Hamel is back in Sens camp, and doing all he can to merit a promotion to the big club. I hope he makes it.

From the NHLPA -- say goodbye to the NHL's version of Mr. October:

Brian Savage, a dependable winger with the Montreal Canadiens, Phoenix Coyotes, St. Louis Blues and Philadelphia Flyers announced his retirement today from the National Hockey League (NHL).

Savage, 35, appeared in a total of 647 regular season NHL games recording 192 goals and 167 assists for 359 points.

And as we all know, an incredible 85% of those points were scored in the month of October ...

Michael Farber thinks so, and says that both the league and the players are to blame:

Indeed, there are so many other safety issues, including the reluctance to make visors mandatory for players entering the league, the absence of no-touch icing (because, as one general manager put it, "fans like the NASCAR effect") and a permissiveness about how loosely chin straps of the helmets can be worn, that the extra quarter-inch on a blade might not scream out as No. 1 on the to-do list.

[...]

Of course, the perception of the bigger curves might change when a rising shot clips a visor-less defenseman's eye and changes that player's perception permanently. For the moment, the Board of Governors' anticipated move is one more reminder that the PA is the only union in the world that does not make safety in the workplace its leading priority.

This is an issue I've examined from time to time, and I still can't come up with an answer.

In this episode (MP3), Joe and I talk about the retirement of Tie Domi as well as the big trades from this Summer involving Chris Pronger, Roberto Luongo and Todd Bertuzzi.

Remember, all you have to do is subscribe to my XML feed (copy the address into your favorite podcast aggregator), and you'll get the file automatically.

UPDATE: And speaking of Bertuzzi, ESPN's Joy Russo is making an interesting comparison:

Calgary's Jarome Iginla (67) had fewer points than Bertuzzi (71) in 82 games last season with a better defense on the ice. Was last season that bad for Bertuzzi?

To hear what I think about Bertuzzi, listen to the podcast.

This is not the sort of news that hockey fans want to hear. In an exhibition game tonight against the Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins rookie Evgeni Malkin was injured while colliding with teammate John LeClair:

Malkin had just finished making a dazzling pass to LeClair when the veteran winger, after missing a great scoring chance, crashed into the boards behind the net and took out Malkin in the process. The Russian catapulted over LeClair and landed hard on the ice. A hush came over the crowd at Moncton Coliseum as Malkin, the No. 2 overall pick behind Alexander Ovechkin in 2004, lay sprawled on the ice for 3-4 minutes.

Malkin got up and skated off the ice but was favoring his left arm. He headed straight to the dressing room. There was no immediate word on his condition.

That doesn't sound good. I really hope he's ok.

After promising myself for more Septembers than I care to remember, I finally took the plunge back into competitive ice hockey. Apparently, I'll be a member of the Aces in the house league at Reston Skatequest, and I take to the ice about 45 minutes from now -- one of the benefits of living close to the rink is you get to leave a little later than usual.

I almost didn't do this, but part of me thought it might be my last chance to enjoy some real ice hockey, and I'm certainly not ready to coach a local squad of Pee Wees. I'll let you all know how it turns out.

Oh yeah, it's been seven years. I'll be bringing a bucket.

POSTSCRIPT: I didn't need a bucket, but I pulled my groin. More like a tweak, but it's still pretty annoying. Thankfully I've got two weeks until the next game.

Still, it felt great, and I'm glad to be back.

Back over the Summer, I think it might have been right after the Caps signed Brian Pothier, General Manager George McPhee said that getting the team into the playoffs was a realistic goal.

I blanched when I first heard that, as I believe the Caps are going to need at leasst one more season of developing talent and drafting low in order to put a playoff-caliber team on the ice. Then again, why not take McPhee at his word? All I ask is that we take a closer look at the scale of the challenge based on last year's performance, and figure out how much the team needs to improve in order to be playing in April and May.

Realistically, when you project the Caps making the playoffs, you're shooting for them to sneak into the tournament as a seventh or eighth seed. Listed below is the 2005-06 order of finish in the Eastern Conference from 7 to 15, listing point totals and goal differential.

7. MON -- 93 (-4)
8. TB -- 92 (-8)
9. TOR -- 90 (-13)
10. ATL -- 90 (+6)
11. FLA -- 85 (-17)
12. NYI -- 78 (-48)
13. BOS -- 74 (-36)
14. WAS -- 70 (-69)
15. PITT -- 58 (-72)

Looking at that list, qualifying for the playoffs in the East in 2005 meant scoring 92 points or more, and making sure your goal differential was within shouting distance of zero. For the Caps, that means 22 points and a combination of additional goals scored and fewer goals against of 69 -- less than an additional goal scored or prevented per game.

All of a sudden, that sounds doable. So how do we get there?

Cut Down On The Shots: On the surface, Olie Kolzig's performance in 2005-06 doesn't look that impressive. But while stats-wise it was less than a goalie would hope for, the on-ice performance was heroic as the Caps yielded more shots on goal than any other team in the NHL -- 35.1 per game.

It's a wonder that Kolzig didn't beg to be traded at the deadline. Cut down on the shots per game -- and let's be honest, when you're at the bottom of the league there's nowhere to go but up -- you'll take a good hack out of that target of 69.

Improve The Penalty Kill/Power Play: Washington was 28th in the league on the penalty kill at 78.9%. And even with Alexander Ovechkin potting 21 power play goals last season, the power play ranked 26th, at 14.7%. Taking a deeper look at last year's numbers, you'll see that the Caps found themselves down two men 62 times last season, that's eight times more than they enjoyed a two-man advantage. The result: They were outscored 16-9, even though they enjoyed slightly more total time with a two-man advantage than against. Even that up, and you creep a little closer to your goal.

Sounds fairly simple doesn't it? Cut down on your shots, score a few more goals at even strength, improve your power play, take fewer 5-on-3 penalties.

So did they do enough to make it happen? Let's start from goal and move on out:

Goalie

Kolzig is back and so is Brent Johnson. Barring injury that's the tandem that will start the season in D.C., though if the tenor at camp says anything, Frederic Cassivi has a lot of fans out there.

Defensemen

Out: Mathieu Biron, Jakub Cutta, J.F. Fortin, Ivan Majesky and Nolan Yonkman
In: Brian Pothier, John Erskine and Ben Clymer*

Nobody, and I mean nobody, is going to shed a tear for any of the guys who left town. Pothier, who only has less than two full seasons in the NHL under his belt even though he's 29, was brought in to upgrade the power play. Right before camp started the team announced that it had asked Clymer to shift back to the blue line, and imported free agent John Erskine from the Islanders. Erskine's arrival means that man mountain Sasha Pokulok will start the season at Hershey, but know this: Erskine is the kind of player that teams begin to take a hard look at around the trade deadline when they feel they're a body or two short on the blueline. If he doesn't have a two-way contract, and the Caps aren't within striking distance of the playoffs at the deadline, I could easily see him getting moved for a draft pick, allowing Pokulok to get some ice time at the end of the season.

While it's clear the team has upgraded here, it's less clear just how much better they will be. A lot is going to depend on the continued development of holdovers Shaone Morrison, Steve Eminger and Mike Green. Can Jamie Heward and Brian Muir perform as well as they did last season when they logged better than 20 minutes of ice time per game?

Another thing to keep in mind: In camp so far, Eminger, who was once projected as a power play quarterback, is nowhere to be seen on either or the two units. Dainius Zubrus and Pothier are the pair on the top unit, while Green and Clymer are running the second.

Forwards

Out: Jeff Halpern, Brian Willsie, Jared Aulin, Colin Forbes, Owen Fussey
In: Richard Zednik, Donald Brashear, Alexander Semin (back from Russia after two years away), Alexandre Giroux, Quintin Laing, Pete Vandermeer

The team wasn't willing to give Halpern the contract term that he wanted, so he'll be playing third line center for Dallas this season behind Mike Modano and Eric Lindros. Willsie got himself some nice money to go to LA. In both cases, the team figured that they could get comparable production out of younger players for less money, and it's hard to argue against that.

The top line of Ovechkin, Zubrus and Chris Clark remains intact. But the newcomers are scrambling the situation on the second line and the power play.

The key guys here are Zednik and Semin (with the other new arrivals more than likely filling out the roster at Hershey). We've already seen that Semin and Zednik will be on the top power play unit with Ovechkin, Pothier and Zubrus, so we ought to be able to expect some serious improvement there. Brashear is going to be looking over Ovechkin's shoulder, and God anyone help whoever crosses the Indianapolis native.

But questions will have to be asked about the second line, with the team looking to former draft pick Kris Beech to step in between Semin and Zednik. If not Beech, youngsters Brooks Laich or Brian Sutherby will get a shot. Ever since the middle of last season, the Caps identified acquiring depth at center as a priority, but they still haven't made an acquisition. Still, with all that extra ice time available, you get to see if a prospect can step in and get the job done, or provide just that sort of player a chance to develop.

So, with one or two surprises mixed in, that's what your 2006-07 Caps are going to look like. Does it look 22 points better than last season?

If Morrisson, Eminger and Green all blossom on the blue line at the same time, and somebody is able to develop into an NHL-caliber pivot on the second line, I'd say a playoff spot is a stretch goal. If not, I say the Caps are back in the postseason in Spring 2008. In any case, with Ovechkin back, the team will be fun to watch no matter what.

POSTSCRIPT: This little preview would have been impossible without leaning on JD Press and the best independent Hockey Salary Source around. And without some of the work done by Tyler Dellow, it would have been a heckuva lot more difficult.

First he talks with a bunch of recent cuts and then he chatted up General Manager George McPhee about his career fight highlight reel that's been getting some attention:

Cool to see Dan kicking around Ashburn. Here's hoping he brings a video camera next time.

Here's a suggestion for the Caps: Next season, on the first day of camp, put a microphone on head coach Glen Hanlon. I think the fans would love to know exactly what's happening on the ice, and understand the reasoning behind the drills.

Two all-time NHL greats attempt to film a commercial:

Thanks to Colby Cosh for the pointer.